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Market analysis

Prepare with context.
Respond with discipline.

Use a repeatable framework to study market conditions, build scenarios, and document your own decisions. Start with a plan you can explain and review.

This page is an educational preparation framework. It does not contain live market calls, personalized recommendations, or guaranteed outcomes.

1. Establish the context

Start with what is happening and what you can verify. Separate a headline from your interpretation of it. Note scheduled announcements, company events, and the session you plan to observe.

  • Record the source and time of information you use.
  • Describe whether price is trending, ranging, or changing direction.
  • Write down what is still uncertain before building a plan.

2. Mark the areas that matter

Identify prior highs and lows, areas of repeated reactions, and the boundaries of a visible range. A level is an area to observe; it does not promise a reversal or breakout.

  • Label the timeframe used for each area.
  • Explain why the area matters instead of adding lines without a reason.
  • Observe how price behaves when it reaches the area.

3. Write conditional scenarios

Create more than one possible outcome before price moves. State what you would need to see, what would contradict that interpretation, and when staying out makes sense.

  • Upward scenario: what evidence would support it?
  • Downward scenario: what evidence would support it?
  • No-trade scenario: what conditions are too unclear to act on?

4. Define the risk before acting

Record your intended entry, the point that invalidates the idea, position size, and the planned maximum loss. Execution costs and slippage can change the actual result.

  • Check the product, order type, and trading hours.
  • Account for spreads, fees, and liquidity.
  • Do not assume an exit order guarantees a particular price.

5. Review the process

Compare your original plan with what you actually did. A profitable result can follow poor decisions, and a losing result can follow a disciplined plan. Review both separately.

  • Save the setup, reasoning, and result in your journal.
  • Note any departure from your plan and why it happened.
  • Choose one specific process improvement for your next review.

Your daily preparation record

Context → key areas → possible scenarios → invalidation and risk → session review. Keep your notes in the free journal so you can compare decisions over time.

Start Your Journal